Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014
The area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Mexico has continued to become better organized this evening with
convection consolidating near the low-level center along with
increased banding features. Since earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets
the criteria for a tropical depression. The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from
TAFB.
The depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next
several days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear. There are
no obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady
strengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction
is above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the
SHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of
days. It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative
intensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level
environment predicted by the GFS model verifies.
The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14. A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build
westward during the next couple of days, which should cause the
depression to turn toward the west. Model guidance is generally in
good agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to
the model consensus. Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
and a potential break in the ridge along 130W. While the former
feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
poleward track. The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the
less dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is
a little northwest of the model consensus at long range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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