ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Strong westerly wind shear has become established over Genevieve and the low-level center is now completely detached from the remaining disorganized convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 knots at this time, but given the current satellite presentation and the hostile environment expected to prevail, the NHC forecast calls for additional weakening. Genevieve could become a remnant low as soon as tonight. If the low survives a few days, there is a small chance of regeneration in the Central Pacific where the upper-level environment could become a little more favorable. The depression is moving westward at 7 knots, and since it has become a shallow cyclone, it is now being steered by the low-level flow south of the subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that this subtropical ridge will not change much in position or strength. This pattern should keep the depression or its remnants moving generally westward for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.4N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.5N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1800Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 14.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1800Z 14.5N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:33 UTC