ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center has been pulsating during the past several hours. Earlier ASCAT data suggest that the circulation is becoming elongated, and based on Dvorak classifications, the intensity has been lowered to 30 knots at this time. Most of the global models...primarily the ECMWF, show unfavorable upper-level winds over the depression, and this pattern should result in gradual weakening. In addition, both intensity consensus and LGEM models call for weakening, and so does the official forecast. Some small fluctuations in intensity are possible before the depression becomes a remnant low in about 3 days. The depression is still embedded in the ITCZ, and has been moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 4 knots. However, as the depression weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should be steered by the low-level flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge with an increase in forward speed. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.2N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:33 UTC