Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014
Deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center has been
pulsating during the past several hours. Earlier ASCAT data suggest
that the circulation is becoming elongated, and based on Dvorak
classifications, the intensity has been lowered to 30 knots at this
time. Most of the global models...primarily the ECMWF, show
unfavorable upper-level winds over the depression, and this pattern
should result in gradual weakening. In addition, both intensity
consensus and LGEM models call for weakening, and so does the
official forecast. Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible before the depression becomes a remnant low in about 3
days.
The depression is still embedded in the ITCZ, and has been moving
slowly westward or 270 degrees at 4 knots. However, as the
depression weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should be
steered by the low-level flow on the south side of the subtropical
ridge with an increase in forward speed. This forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is very close to the multi-model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 12.2N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN