ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014 Deep convection began developing near the center of the low pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC. The convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized, and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center. A 0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently well defined. The ASCAT data also showed an area of tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center. Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Genevieve. Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much northward progress. The initial motion is 275/9 kt. The break in the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24 hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours. There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude. Given Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't be surprising. The official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE. The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. A band of strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring the storm into a higher-shear environment. There is more certainty that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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