Tropical Storm FAUSTO

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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern
appears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a
long band wrapping around the western and southern side of the
circulation.  However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the
cyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level
center is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the
main convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear
analyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear
affecting the cyclone.  One of the ASCAT passes showed believable
37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial
intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/12.  Although Fausto has not
gained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone
moving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude.
The latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding,
which should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west-
northwestward heading until day 4 or 5.  By that time, the cyclone
is expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which
should result in a more westerly motion.  The NHC track forecast
is only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster.
The NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the
guidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better
initialization of the cyclone.

Except for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear,
the large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for
intensification over the short term.  Beyond two days, thermodynamic
conditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and
the shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours.  These
negative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days.
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous
forecast and is near the mult-model consensus.  It should be noted
that the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature
that does not intensify further during the forecast period.  Thus a
plausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an
open trough within a few days for reasons unknown.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z  9.5N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z  9.9N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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