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Tropical Storm FAUSTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

The convective cloud pattern associated with Tropical Storm Fausto
has continued to improve with numerous small curved bands having
developed in the northern semicircle, while a large curved band has
persisted in the southern semicircle. The upper-level outflow is
good to excellent, and it has continued to expand and become more
symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt
based on the improved cloud pattern, a 1757 UTC ASCAT-B overpass
that showed a peak surface wind of 38 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and also the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT satellite intensity
estimates of T2.8/41 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt. The forecast track was
shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, but the
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Fausto should move westward to
west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as the cyclone skirts
the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north
along 24N-25N latitude. By Days 4 and 5, a mid-tropospheric trough
is forecast to dig southward from the north-central Pacific and
weaken the ridge between 140W-150W longitude, causing Fausto to turn
more northwestward toward the weakness or break in the ridge. As the
cyclone gains latitude, it is expected to encounter increasing
westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters by
Days 4 and 5, which should weaken the system and cause it to become
more shallow and be steered more westward by the strong low-level
easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is south of
the consensus model TCVE due to expected weak northwesterly
mid-level wind shear impinging on the vortex column and keeping it
farther south closer to the deep convection. This complex steering
pattern is depicted well by the HWRF model, which initialized Fausto
much better than the other models, and shows a deeper vortex
throughout the forecast period.

Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment of wind
shear less than 10 kt, mid-level moisture greater than 70 percent,
and sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for the next 48 hours
or so, which should result in at least gradual strengthening. The
HWRF model makes Fausto a hurricane in about 48 hours, which isn't
entirely out of the question if convection can wrap around the north
side of the low-level center, resulting in a stronger and better
developed vortex column. For now, however, the official intensity
forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and closely
follows the intensity consensus model IVCN due to modest mid-level
shear undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which
is expected to inhibit development somewhat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z  9.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z  9.9N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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