Tropical Storm DOUGLAS

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas is hanging on as a tropical storm.  After being devoid of
deep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to
the northeast of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 35
kt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 2.5 from TAFB.  Douglas is currently over cold 23C
waters and in a stable airmass.  These hostile conditions should
cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
by 24 hours.  This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system
on a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days.
The track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and
is very near the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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