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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Cristina has been on a weakening trend during the last several
hours with warming cloud tops noted and less organization seen on
infrared satellite images.  In addition, microwave data suggest that
the mid-level center is displaced to the northeast of the low-level
circulation.  A blend of the T/CI numbers from TAFB/SAB gives an
initial wind speed of 70 kt.  The hurricane is expected to encounter
cooler waters and increasing wind shear over the next few days.  In
combination with plentiful dry air aloft, these factors should
contribute to continued weakening.  Cristina will likely transition
into a remnant low in about two days when SSTs drop below 25C.
Guidance is lower than the last cycle, and the NHC wind speed
prediction is reduced from the previous one, a bit lower than the
intensity consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate remains 310/6.  The cyclone should be
steered by a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico for the next
day or two, resulting in a slower track to the west-northwest.
After that time, the model guidance is now showing less of a
westward motion when the cyclone is a remnant low, perhaps due to a
weaker low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific.  No significant
changes were made to the first 48 hours of the NHC forecast, but
afterwards the new forecast is shifted to the north, closer to the
latest guidance.

The 2014 eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record fast
start.  Up through today's date, it has the highest Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of any year since 1971-- over 6 times
the 1981-2010 average.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 19.3N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 19.7N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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