Tropical Depression BORIS

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014

The center or area of minimum pressure associated with Boris
apparently crossed the coast of Chiapas, Mexico near the city of
Tonala around 06 UTC. Since that time, satellite images and surface
observations indicate that the alleged center is rapidly losing
definition, and it is taking the appearance of an elongated
north-south trough of low pressure. I would not be surprised if
there are a couple of centers of circulation along such trough. I
was tempted to declare Boris a remnant low, but I would rather wait
for early morning visible images and keep the system as a tropical
depression at this time.

The depression appears to be moving northward or 360 degrees at 5
knots. Most of the guidance suggests that Boris or its remnants will
continue on this slow track over the high terrain of southeastern
Mexico and dissipate later today.

Boris or its remnants, in combination with a trough of low pressure
in the Bay of Campeche will continue to produce very heavy rainfall.
These rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud
slides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Chiapas over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 16.2N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 17.0N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z 18.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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