Tropical Storm AMANDA

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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014

Amanda has come unglued during the past few hours, with the
remaining deep convection now located more than 2 degrees to the
northeast of the low-level center. This weakening appears to be due
to the usually potent combination of vertical wind shear and mid/
upper-level dry air advecting over the cyclone. The initial
intensity is decreased to 35 kt based on the degradation in the
satellite presentation and is a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

While the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Amanda during
the next day or two, the thermodynamic environment continues to
worsen. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Amanda will be able to
restrengthen. The NHC forecast continues to show a weakening trend
and is close to the intensity consensus. Remnant low status is
forecast in 36 hours, although this could occur sooner, with
dissipation expected in 4 or 5 days.

Recent microwave imagery and multi-channel IR imagery suggest that
the low-level center is exposed to the southwest of the remaining
convection and that the center may be elongating. The initial motion
estimate is a rather uncertain 045/05, but it does appear that
Amanda has been moving a little to the left of the previous forecast
track. The bulk of the dynamical guidance shows Amanda turning
toward the east-northeast and slowing down later today as an
upper-level trough passes by to the north. By Friday, the guidance
suggests a slow eastward motion, followed by a westward turn in 72
hours as Amanda becomes a shallow cyclone and is steered more by
the low-level flow. The new NHC track is a blend of the previous
forecast adjusted for the initial position and motion and the latest
guidance, and lies north of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.8N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.5N 109.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 17.3N 109.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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