Tropical Storm GONZALO

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014               
0900 UTC MON OCT 13 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   3(18)   1(19)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
PONCE          34  1   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAN JUAN       34  1   8( 9)  15(24)   3(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SAN JUAN       50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  2  44(46)  10(56)   2(58)   X(58)   1(59)   X(59)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X  13(13)   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2  24(26)   6(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 60  34(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  6  49(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 76   9(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 27   8(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
BARBUDA        50 39   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
BARBUDA        64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ANTIGUA        34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
ANTIGUA        50 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ANTIGUA        64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
AVES           34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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