Tropical Storm GONZALO

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   6(18)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  15(31)   7(38)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  11(30)   3(33)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  14(21)   7(28)   2(30)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
PONCE          34  X   3( 3)  29(32)  27(59)   7(66)   2(68)   X(68)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   4(27)   X(27)   1(28)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   4( 4)  45(49)  30(79)   3(82)   1(83)   X(83)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  31(40)   5(45)   X(45)   X(45)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1  12(13)  61(74)   9(83)   1(84)   1(85)   X(85)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)  31(31)  12(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1  20(21)  59(80)   4(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   1( 1)  36(37)   5(42)   X(42)   1(43)   X(43)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  6  41(47)  17(64)   X(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 17  64(81)   5(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X  21(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34 42  26(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
BARBUDA        50  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34 63  27(90)   X(90)   X(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
ANTIGUA        50  3  16(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
ANTIGUA        64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 65  20(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
GUADELOUPE     50  5   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GUADELOUPE     64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
AVES           34  1  18(19)   7(26)   2(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
DOMINICA       34 11   7(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  2   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN