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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
200 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 67.3W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA TODAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.
SWELLS WILL REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

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