Tropical Storm GONZALO

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BEGINNING TO MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ON ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 61.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE AIRCRAFT IS
STILL INVESTIGATING GONZALO...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY FIND STRONGER
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  ANTIGUA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45
MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH
AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY.  SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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