Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...LARGE EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM
BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OCCURRING
AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 64.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON BERMUDA SHORTLY...
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY THE BERMUDA RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST.  GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FASTER WEAKENING
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GONZALO MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H AND A GUST TO
74 MPH...119 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 84 MPH...135 KM/H AND A GUST TO 119 MPH...191 KM/H
WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT
COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H AND A GUST TO 97 MPH...156 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT
AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT ST. DAVIDS BERMUDA NEAR THE AIRPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY ON
BERMUDA AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL PASSES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ISLAND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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