Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO VERY NEAR BERMUDA...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT GONZALO IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA VERY
SOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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