Hurricane GONZALO

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO TURNS NORTHWARD AND AIMS AT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY.  GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A MORE STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY
LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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