Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  66.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  66.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N  67.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.3N  65.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N  63.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.9N  60.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.5N  54.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 54.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 56.6N   6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN


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