Hurricane GONZALO

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0300 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  67.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  67.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  67.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.7N  66.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.5N  64.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.4N  62.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 42.0N  57.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW  80NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 240SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 56.5N  12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N  67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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