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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
Devonshire Parish.  The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
recent ADT values of 97 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.

Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
Newfoundland.

The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 32.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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