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Tropical Storm GONZALO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface
winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the
low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a
strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to
move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour
time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of
the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo
to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast
closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
intensity model.

NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
NHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the
dissemination of these data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1730Z 16.4N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 16.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.5N  61.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 17.2N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 18.2N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 20.5N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 22.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 24.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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