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Tropical Storm EDOUARD (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured
a minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard.
This leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another
sonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data,
and this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some
disruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite
images indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this
time. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow
is expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual
strengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear,
and the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to
the intensity consensus ICON.

Edouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11
kt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of
the subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force
the cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track
during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast
to weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated.  There
is high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since
the dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows
closely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF
and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 19.5N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 20.5N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 21.8N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 23.2N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 24.5N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 31.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 37.0N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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