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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the
low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined
circulation and organized convective banding near the center.  Thus,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six.  The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data
and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 310/12.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track
guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  There
is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should
occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near
45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W.  The official forecast
lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly
motion between 51W-53W.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone well
away from land for the next 5 days.

The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical
wind shear.  The large-scale models forecast some increase
in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the
end of the forecast period.  Despite the shear, the intensity
guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening.  The official
forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and
the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.2N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 17.1N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 18.2N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 19.3N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 20.5N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 23.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 26.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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