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Tropical Storm DOLLY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican
radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between
Tampico and Cabo Rojo.  The initial intensity is decreased to a
somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in
convective bands over water to the northeast of the center.  Dolly
should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system
is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of
central Mexico.

The initial motion is 265/7.  Dolly is forecast to continue moving
generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it
dissipates.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 21.8N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/1800Z 21.8N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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