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Tropical Depression FOUR (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
800 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

...DEPRESSION JUST NORTHWEST OF OF PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 72.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR
OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND
SURFACE DATA FROM PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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