Hurricane CRISTOBAL

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HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  72.2W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 190SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  72.2W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  72.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE  90SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE  90SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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