Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane CRISTOBAL


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

As indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is not
typical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quite
linear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of a
frontal zone. However, an reconnaissance planes recently measured
winds of 73 kt at flight level and a minimum central pressure of 987
mb. This supports an initial intensity of 65 knots. Most of the
global models intensify the cyclone, and given that the
shear is gradually decreasing, the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening at a rate very close to the latest intensity consensus
model ICON. By day 4, Cristobal is expected to be over cooler waters
losing tropical characteristics.

Cristobal has been meandering during the past 12 hours or
more, but recently, it has begun to move toward the north at about
10 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a narrow
mid-latitude trough, and squeezed between the Atlantic subtropical
ridge and a high pressure over the United States. Most of the global
models show that the flow around the western side of the Atlantic
ridge will steer the cyclone northward for the next 36 hours or
so. Cristobal will then encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and
turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
guidance in general shifted slightly to the west in the latest run
due to a small expansion of the Atlantic ridge. The NHC track
forecast was also adjusted slightly westward during the
next 24 to 36 hours, following the multi-model consensus, and
placed very close to the consensus between the EMCWF and the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 26.0N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 28.1N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 30.6N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 32.6N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 35.0N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 41.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 48.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0600Z 57.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN