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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013               
1500 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       6      10      17      61      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 34      36      35      40      32      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  64      56      52      41       7      NA      NA
HURRICANE        X       2       3       3       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2       3       2       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    35KT    30KT    15KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  5  13(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
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