Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND THE TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER
HAD NOT BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED...WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS
NOTED WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SHEAR DECREASES IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD
OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
STILL SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER.
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT A BLEND OF THE LATEST FIXES AND CONTINUITY PROVIDES AN
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC TRACK IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 18.3N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.4N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.6N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 24.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 26.5N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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