Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER. MICROWAVE AND OTHER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BY
36H...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MEXICO GIVEN THE SMALL...
BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE...CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 17.7N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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