Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
0900 UTC MON OCT 21 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
 
 
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