Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR RAYMOND...AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORT
AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND
DRIER AIR...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO CONTINUE A QUICK
WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY PRECIPITOUS DECREASE IN WINDS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THIS TREND.  RAYMOND
WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY
DAY 5.
 
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 355/6 KT...THROUGH A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR HAWAII.  THE
BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO EVEN AS RAYMOND WEAKENS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
SHOULD STILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY DUE TO
WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS.  THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG
THE TRACK MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 16.4N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 17.2N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.0N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 19.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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