Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT RAYMOND UNDERWENT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROBABLY ENDED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A NEARLY
CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CLOUD-OBSCURED EYE.  HOWEVER A
SHARP EDGE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
IS SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC WAS 5.0...AND ADT VALUES HAVE
RECENTLY LEVELED OFF AROUND THAT VALUE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.
 
RAYMOND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FORWARD MOTION COULD SLOW
TO A CRAWL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LOW.  THE ONLY
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
RIGHT...TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS...ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.  ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE PERSISTENCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF
THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO A VERY QUICK
DEMISE AFTER THAT TIME...WITH RAYMOND LIKELY DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR PERHAPS SOONER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 15.3N 116.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 16.1N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 17.8N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 18.3N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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