Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
RAYMOND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS SINCE EARLIER TODAY...WITH A
PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
TAKEN ON A MORE CIRCULAR SHAPE...AND A 2249 UTC TRMM PASS ALSO
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...SIGNALING THE
FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS 3.5 AT 0000 UTC...AND ADT VALUES ARE ON THE RISE.  BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. RAYMOND SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF STORM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN REACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA EJECTS
EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT...RAYMOND MAY ATTEMPT A RECURVATURE BEFORE
SHEARING APART...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD...LIKELY BE DRAWN
IN THIS DIRECTION DUE TO A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
THIS CYCLE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HOLDS THE LINE BY FAVORING THE
MORE EASTERN ECWMF SOLUTION UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT A DEEPER
CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.
 
RAYMOND FINALLY APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FACTORS FOR INTENSIFICATION. SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDER
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND OVER
27-28C WATERS...THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE SUGGEST THAT RAYMOND WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS TIME.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A
DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN AS SOON AS 72 HOURS.  GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS...THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT IS LITTLE CHANGED LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 13.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 13.5N 115.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 14.4N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 15.3N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 16.2N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 17.0N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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