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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH THE COLDEST TOPS DISPLACED EAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT RESULTED IN MUCH
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48
HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DECAY
TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
 
RAYMOND IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
265/11. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF RAYMOND WILL BE AT PEAK
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO RECURVATURE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN 72 TO
96 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED
AS RAYMOND DECOUPLES FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED FASTER AND SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THIS CYCLE...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. THE NHC TRACK REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 13.1N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 13.1N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 13.3N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 14.0N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 15.1N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 17.1N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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