ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND... WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN TIP. A WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALSO PREVAILS OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. RAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N 120W SHIFTS EASTWARD. WHEN RAYMOND REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SAME RIDGE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN A NORTHWARD TURN ARE EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE APPROACH OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO BY 96 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART. AFTER THAT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY HAS BEEN BAFFLING...ESPECIALLY SINCE RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST. WITH SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING GENERALLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RAYMOND IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO SEPARATE BY 96 HOURS. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT WITH A FASTER WEAKENING TREND IN 72 TO 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 12.9N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.9N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 14.1N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 16.5N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC