Hurricane RAYMOND

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HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED
AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY.  ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT
0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT.  GIVEN THE MUCH
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE. 
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE
FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
WEAKENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT.  RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.  THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW
CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR.  THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48
HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.  IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST.  THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS MODELS.
 
GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE
GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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