ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF WARM WATER... A MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR....SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK WESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS... THEN SHOWS IT TURNING WESTWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 14.5N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.2N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 15.8N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.1N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.1N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC