Tropical Storm PRISCILLA

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TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 115.5W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 115.5W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 115.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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