ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES IS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED. A 0534Z ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT. THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW. ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:36 UTC