Tropical Depression PRISCILLA

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH
A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE
IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.  NOW THAT THE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT
LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  PRISCILLA IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96
HOURS.
 
PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS WELL. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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