ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING PRISCILLA AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO INGEST MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...PRISCILLA SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN CAUSE PRISCILLA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. PRISCILLA APPEARS TO BE TURNING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/6 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.9N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.2N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 19.7N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 19.6N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:36 UTC