Tropical Storm PRISCILLA

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TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT
AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY HAVE
SHRUNK SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW VECTORS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EKE OUT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT. 
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PRISCILLA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN SHOULD
DECREASE TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...
PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO
ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH MAY BE THE STRONGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COLDER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRISCILLA BY DAY
3...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
4...IF NOT SOONER.  THE 12Z GFDL AND HWRF RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER THAN THE 06Z RUNS...AND NO LONGER SHOW PRISCILLA REACHING
NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ON THIS CYCLE.

PRISCILLA IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8 KT. 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE DISSIPATES NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE
RIDGE WILL FORCE PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAS AGAIN
SHIFTED WESTWARD.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED
IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT THE ADJUSTMENT IS NOT AS BIG AS WHAT WAS
NEEDED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 15.7N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 18.0N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.8N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z 18.3N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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