Tropical Storm NARDA

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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013
 
COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS
SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A
T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS
A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER
THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C
SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE
MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT
THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED
TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE THERAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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