Hurricane MANUEL

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HURRICANE MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 108.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 108.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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