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Tropical Storm LORENA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013
 
RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF LORENA IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  SOME BANDING
IS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL
SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENA
INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...
ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE.  SINCE IT IS SUCH A
WEAK SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH...LORENA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
AND/OR DISSIPATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODEL PREDICTIONS...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE DONE A FINE JOB ON
ANTICIPATING THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.
 
LORENA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE...315/10.
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED....AND AS THE
STORM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE PRIMARY
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE
GETS BEFORE IT DECOUPLES VERTICALLY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF
FORECASTS WHICH SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY LYING NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 22.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.1N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 24.3N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 25.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 
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