Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RRA
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ASCAT DATA
SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR
TWO.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS
OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL
SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 46 KT.  GIVEN THE TIME OF
THE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM.  

BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A
DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON
WHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN
BACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF
MEXICO.  GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED
MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL
PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS.  ALL GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION
BELOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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