Tropical Storm JULIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013
200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013
 
WIND REPORTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE LAST EVENING INDICATED THAT JULIETTE WAS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO
PULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND
0500 UTC...AND ANOTHER ELEVATED STATION FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST
AT EL PESCADERO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 KT WITH A GUST TO
60 KT AROUND 0430 UTC.  BASED ON AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE DATA...AND
THE FACT THAT JULIETTE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/19 KT.  JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND
EAST ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEPS THE
CENTER OF JULIETTE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

JULIETTE HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM A SMALL TONGUE OF WARM WATER THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...BUT THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MUCH COLDER
WATER.  THE COLD WATER...AS WELL AS CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH
LAND...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN VERY SOON.  THE
UPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY CAUSED AN UPWARD BUMP IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS JULIETTE AS A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW PUTS MORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT RISK FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS THEREFORE EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 24.4N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 27.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 28.5N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 28.9N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 
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