Tropical Depression IVO

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED. 

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN...
IVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 

MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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